The auto market may slow in the second half of 2025 because ’strong demand likely pulled some transactions forward,’ says one expert.
Wholesale used vehicle prices in the United States rose in April on both a monthly and annual basis, driven up by the impact of tariffs, automotive services company Cox Automotive said in a May 7 statement.
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, an indicator of pricing trends in the used vehicle market, jumped by 4.9 percent year-over-year last month to 208.2—the highest reading since October 2023. Compared with March, the index was up 2.7 percent.
“We expected to see strong price appreciation in response to the tariffs, and that’s exactly what came,” said Jeremy Robb, senior director of economic and industry insights at Cox.
“As we move into the second half of the year, though, the auto market may slow as strong demand likely pulled some transactions forward in March and April as buyers tried to get ahead of expected higher prices due to tariffs,” he said.
The Trump administration imposed 25 percent tariffs on auto imports last month. On April 29, President Donald Trump signed an executive order to provide relief for automakers.
The order seeks to prevent overlapping duties from being applied to the same vehicle or auto components.
While carmakers will still pay a 25 percent tariff on foreign-made vehicles, they are exempt from other import duties, such as the universal 10 percent baseline tariffs or the 25 percent tariffs imposed on aluminum and steel imports.
The new policy adds the “finishing touch” to the Trump administration’s plan to strengthen domestic auto manufacturing, a Commerce Department official told reporters.
“This is designed to allow all of the domestic auto manufacturers to grow their plants, to grow new employment, and to build more factories in America.”
Preventing the overlapping of various tariffs would avoid unnecessary price surges in both new and used vehicles.
While wholesale used auto prices jumped last month, retail sales dipped 1.7 percent on a monthly basis. Sales were up 13 percent compared to a year back.
US Auto Manufacturing
When announcing the auto tariffs in March, the Trump administration said the move was necessary to “protect America’s automobile industry, which is vital to national security and has been undermined by excessive imports threatening America’s domestic industrial base and supply chains,” according to a March 26 White House fact sheet.
“Employment in automotive parts manufacturing totaled approximately 553,300 jobs in 2024, a decline of 286,000 jobs or 34 percent since 2000.”
An April 14 S&P Global report predicts tariffs will have a “massive near-term impact” on the global production and sales of automobiles, with North America and the United States experiencing the “worst of the impact.”
S&P forecast U.S. auto sales to decline by roughly 700,000 units this year and by 1.2 million units in 2026.
“The U.S., Canada, and Mexico have built an interdependent trade and manufacturing ecosystem over the past thirty years. Trump’s auto tariffs are providing a shock to the system and are expected to result in higher manufacturing costs and higher vehicle prices in all three countries,” the report said.
Meanwhile, multiple auto companies have announced new investments or production shifts into the United States.
In March, Hyundai Executive Chairman Chung Eui-sun, appearing with President Trump at the White House, announced a $20 billion investment in the country that includes a $5.8 billion steel plant in Louisiana.
“All of these efforts will accelerate the localization of our supply chain in the U.S. to expand our operations and grow our American workforce,” Chung said.
Last month, Honda Motor Co. said it will move the production of the five-door Civic hybrid model from Japan to Indiana. Japanese production of the model is set to end in June or July.
During a conference call with analysts this month, Ford CEO Jim Farley said the company was evaluating boosting the use of America-produced components in its vehicles, including the Taurus, Mustang, and the F-150.
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