XRP Price Prediction: $5 Surge Ahead as Shorts Get Wrecked and Wave 3 Targets $20 Breakout

Following a volatile start to the week—when Ripple’s native token plunged to a low of $1.64—the crypto asset staged a notable recovery. On Thursday, XRP stabilized near the $2 mark, reflecting over a 9% 24-hour gain and signaling renewed bullish sentiment.

The rebound comes in the wake of President Donald Trump ‘s surprise reversal on newly imposed reciprocal tariffs. On April 9, the administration paused a sweeping tariff plan for 90 days, slashing duties to 10% for over 75 non-retaliating countries. While tariffs on Chinese goods soared to 125%, the partial rollback was enough to lift global financial markets. The S&P 500 spiked 9.5%, while Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies, including XRP, followed suit.

Short Sellers Caught Off Guard

XRP’s rapid price movement liquidated $18 million in short positions within 24 hours, according to Coinglass data. Total liquidations across long and short trades neared $24.16 million, underscoring the heightened volatility. This wave of forced exits among bearish traders injected fresh momentum into the market, suggesting that XRP’s bulls are regaining control.

Ripple (XRP) was trading at around $1.99, up 9.06% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: XRP Liquid Index (XRPLX) via Brave New Coin

Derivatives market activity further supports this narrative. Open interest in XRP surged 6.68% to $3.05 billion, while options volume jumped 21.36% to $7,670. A spike in open interest typically signals an influx of new capital and growing trader engagement—a potential precursor to sustained upward movement.

“The price recovery from $1.61 to above $2 makes XRP increasingly attractive to long-position traders,” said a Coinglass analyst. “We’re now watching closely for confirmation signals like MACD crossover and volume support.”

Buy Signal Flashes as MVRV Turns Negative

On-chain metrics echo the technical optimism. According to data from Santiment, XRP’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio remains nearly 9.5% below the mean, a historical buy signal. This negative MVRV suggests that most XRP holders are currently underwater, reducing the likelihood of near-term selling pressure and supporting a potential rebound.

XRP MVRV ratio (30 days). Source: Santiment

“Whenever MVRV dips below zero, it implies undervaluation,” analysts from Santiment noted. “This is when smart money typically accumulates.”

Yet, XRP’s recovery isn’t without hurdles. Daily active addresses have sharply declined—from 581,000 in mid-March to just over 10,000 this week. A decrease in network activity may point to reduced organic demand, potentially dampening momentum unless usage picks up.

Macro Tailwinds: Fed Rate Cuts and Trade Policy

Aside from technicals, macroeconomic factors are increasingly influencing the XRP price outlook. With the Federal Reserve facing mounting pressure to cut interest rates, traders are betting on a more liquidity-rich environment. Historically, rate cuts have been bullish for cryptocurrencies.

Fed rate cut hopes are fueling a potential crypto surge, with Bitcoin, Cardano, and XRP ready to moon. Source: Dr Shahroze via X

“All risk assets, including crypto, tend to benefit from easier monetary policy,” said XRP community figure ‘All Things XRP.’ “Rate cuts inject capital into the system, and in that environment, XRP and Bitcoin become attractive alternatives to traditional low-yield assets.”

However, the market’s reaction depends heavily on the context of the rate cut. If perceived as a response to strength, the move could fuel a rally. If it signals economic distress, investor caution may prevail.

Elliot Wave Forecast: $20 in Sight After Final Correction

Long-term analysis adds a compelling bullish case for XRP. According to Elliot Wave theory, the token may currently be in Wave 2 of a five-wave cycle. Popular analyst XForced Global suggests a final drop below $1 could complete Wave 2, marking an ideal buy zone before the powerful Wave 3 catapults XRP to a projected $20 high.

Despite relentless backlash, XRP has steadily formed higher lows for seven years—now setting its sights on a $20 target. Source: XForceGlobal via X

“Wave 3 is typically the strongest and most explosive in the Elliot Wave sequence,” said the analyst. “Assuming fundamentals hold, we could see a tenfold increase in market cap.”

Wave 4 could bring a retracement to $7 before a final surge to $30 concludes the cycle. Though this long-term vision may take years to play out, it provides a roadmap for high-conviction investors navigating short-term volatility.

Short-Term Targets: $2.41 and $2.60 Within Reach

In the near term, XRP’s price action is focused on reclaiming and holding above key resistance levels. The range between $2.11 and $2.60 has emerged as a value zone based on recent trading volumes. If bulls can maintain momentum above $2.11, a rally toward $2.41 and even $2.60 is likely. A rejection, however, could lead to a dip toward $1.47—aligning with the sub-$1 buy zone predicted in Elliot Wave models.

Based on macro liquidity trends, XRP’s short-term price target is $2.60 to $3.70 by late June, with a potential rebound starting around April 18. Source: Zygliu on TradingView

While some analysts remain cautious due to macro uncertainties like the ongoing XRP lawsuit and Ripple SEC legal saga, others see the current condition as a bullish continuation.

Looking Forward: XRP Price to Hit $5 and Beyond?

Between strong technical support, surging derivatives activity, and macroeconomic tailwinds, XRP is poised for a potentially explosive move. The immediate challenge lies in holding above $2 and breaking through resistance zones. If accomplished, XRP could eye a push toward $5 in the coming months—setting the stage for an even more ambitious climb toward $20, as projected by Elliot Wave theory.

With geopolitical tensions, Fed policy shifts, and the Ripple lawsuit developments all looming, XRP’s price trajectory may not be linear—but it certainly isn’t short of catalysts. As the Ripple ecosystem matures and institutional interest grows, XRP could soon play a much larger role in both the Ripple currency price landscape and the broader Ripple market.